玛曲县高原鼠兔地理分布预测及其对气候变化的潜在响应

Prediction of geographical distribution for plateaupikas and its potential response to climatechange in Maqu

摘要:

高原鼠兔(Ochotona curzoniae)是高寒草地生态系统中的关键物种,对于维系草地生物多样性有着重要的作用。认识高原鼠兔的空间分布及其影响因子,对了解其栖息地的选择和在生态系统中的作用有重要意义。利用甘肃省玛曲县当前高原鼠兔90个分布点数据和27个环境因子数据以及BIOMOD2软件包中的10个物种分布模型,预测了当前和RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways)2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5等4种排放情景下未来2050s和2070s时间段玛曲县高原鼠兔潜在分布范围。结果发现,在10个模型中,随机森林(Random Forest,RF)表现最佳,表面分布区分室模型(Surface Range Envelop,SRE)最差;在气候因子中最湿季平均气温(Bio8因子)重要值最高,对高原鼠兔栖息地的选择影响最为显著。

关键词:高原鼠兔;BIOMOD2;物种分布模型;气候变化

Abstract:

Plateau pika is a key species in the alpine rangeland ecosystem and plays an important role in maintaining rangeland biodiversity.The spatial distribution of plateau pika and its influence factors are important for understanding the causes of habitat selection,and the role of this species in the ecosystem.In this study,based on BIOMOD2 platform,with 90 species presence data and 27 climatic variables,the potential geographic distribution of plateau pika under the current conditions in Maqu was simulated with 10 species distribution model.The future distributions of plateau pika were also projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under the climate change scenarios of RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways)2.6,RCP 4.5,RCP 6.0 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios described.The results showed that: Random Forest (RF) was the best among the 10 models,Surface Range Envelop (SRE) was the worst;the wet season mean temperature (Bio8) was the most important factor in climate factors,which had the most significant impact on the habitat of plateau pika.

Key words:plateau pika;BIOMOD2;species distribution model;climate change