基于Markov-PLUS和InVEST模型的锡林郭勒草原碳储量变化预测

Prediction of carbon storage change in Xilingol grassland based on Markov-PLUS and inVEST models

摘要:

【目的】研究锡林郭勒草原土地利用对碳储量的影响，了解草原生态系统固碳能力的变化趋势。【方法】基于 1995-2015 年土地利用变化规律，结合场景分析法和 Markov‐PLUS 复合模型，模拟锡林郭勒草原历史趋势、经济发展和生态保护 3 个场景下 2035 年的土地利用空间分布，并利用 InVEST 模型预测相应的碳储量，分析土地利用变化对碳储量的影响。【结果】（1）1995-2015 年，锡林郭勒草原林地和城乡工矿居民用地面积持续增加，草地面积减少，但草地仍是占比最大的土地利用类型，20 年间区域碳储量增加了 18 228. 93×10³ t；（2）预测到 2035 年，历史趋势和经济发展场景下，用地面积增加的主要为草地和城乡工矿居民用地，生态保护场景下为林地和草地，3 种场景下碳储量增量分别为 4 419. 74×10³ 、1 1207. 75×10³ 和 18 498. 45×10³ t。【结论】 Markov‐PLUS 和 InVEST 模型预测锡林郭勒草原未来土地利用和碳储量变化获得的结果可靠；预测结果表明，1995-2035 年锡林郭勒碳储量呈增加趋势，生态保护场景下碳储量增幅显著高于其他场景；林地、草地与其他地类之间的转变是导致碳储量变化的主要原因。本研究可以为该区域未来的土地利用结构的调整和管理提供参考。

Abstract:

【Objective】 In order to explore the impact of land use changes on carbon storage， so as to understand the change trend of carbon sequestration capacity of grassland ecosystems.【Method】 Based on the land use data from 1995 to 2015， combined the scenario analysis method and the Markov ‐PLUS compound model， the study simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2035 of Xilingol grassland under historical trend (HT)， economic development (ED) and ecological protection (EP) scenarios. The carbon storage estimation result based on InVEST model was used to analyzed the impact of land use changes on carbon storage.【Result】1) From 1995 to 2015， the areas of for‐ est and construction land，Xilingol grassland， continued to increase， and grassland area decreased which accounted for the largest percentage land use type. During this period， the carbon storage increased by 18 228. 93×10³ t；2) By 2035， the area would increase mainly in grassland and construction land under HT and ED scenarios， and would in‐ crease mainly in forest land and grassland under EP scenario. The carbon storage increments under three scenarios were predicted to be 4 419. 74×10³ t，11 207. 75×10³ t and 18 498. 45×10³ t， respectively.【Conclusion】 Markov‐ PLUS and InVEST models could obtain reliable results in predicting future land use and carbon storage in Xilingol grassland. The simulation results showed that the carbon storage of Xilingol grassland would be in an upward trend from 1995 to 2035. The increase of carbon storage under ecological protection scenario was significantly higher than other scenarios. The transition between forest‐grassland and other land uses would be the main reason of the change in carbon storage. This study provides reference for the adjustment and management of the future land use structure in this region.