青海省露蕊乌头的分布与危害区预测

Distribution and prediction of hazard area of Aconitum gymnandrum in Qinghai Province

摘要:

【目的】 了解青海省主要毒杂草露蕊乌头的分布、危害区及影响因子。【方法】 用Max- Ent3. 4. 4模型，预测不同气候情景下青海省露蕊乌头的潜在分布区。【结果】 使用MaxEnt3.4.4模型分别在当前、SSP126、SSP245、SSP370、SSP585气候情景下的模拟精度值均大于0.9，处于“极好”的水平，可信度高；根据模型预测结果将青海省露蕊乌头潜在分布区划分为4个适生等级，其中总危害区面积3.80×10⁵ hm²、高危害区面积2.83×10⁴ km²、中危害区面积6.23×10⁴ km²、低危害区面积1.50× 10⁵ km²、非危害区面积4.60×10⁵ hm²。高危害区主要分布于青海省南部玉树州南部，海北州门源县、 祁连县，西宁市大通县等地区。运用刀切法计算各个环境变量对物种分布的影响，发现年降水量 （Bio12）、归一化植被指数（NDVI）、月太阳辐射（Srad）、最湿季降水量（Bio16），是影响露蕊乌头分布的主要因素，其影响机制可能与露蕊乌头的传粉生态学有关。【结论】 未来气候情景下，青海省露蕊乌头的分布呈现收缩趋势，在2030sSSP126、SSP245气候情境下露蕊乌头危害区收缩趋势更为明显，并且有向东南部迁移的趋势。

Abstract:

【Objective】 Understanding the distribution of the poisonous weed Aconitum gymnandrum in Qinghai Province，its harmful areasand the influencing factors is significant for ecological construction and sustainable development of animal husbandry in the region.【Method】 The MaxEnt 3. 4. 4 model was usedin this study to predict the potential distribution areas of Aconitum gymnandrum under different climate scenarios.【Result】 The results indicated that the simulation accuracy of the MaxEnt 3. 4. 4 model under current and future climate scenarios （SSP126， SSP245，SSP370，SSP585） exceeded 0. 9，demonstrating excellent reliability. Based on the model’s predictions，the potential distribution areas of Aconitum gymnandrum in Qinghai Province were categorized into four suitability levels. The total area of the affected regions was approximately 37. 99×10⁴ hm²，with high-risk areas covering 2. 83× 10⁴ km²，medium-risk areas 6. 23×10⁴ km²，and low-risk areas 144，600 km² and non-hazardous areas 46. 15×10⁴ km². High-risk areas were primarily located in the southern part of Yushu Prefecture，Menyuan and Qilian counties in Haibei Prefecture，and Datong County in Xining City. The Jackknife test was employed to assess the influence of various environmental variables on the species distribution，identifying annual precipitation （bio12），normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI），monthly solar radiation （Srad），and precipitation of wettest quarter （bio16） as the main factors affecting the distribution of Aconitum gymnandrum，possibly related to its pollination ecology.【Conclusion】 Under future climate scenarios，the distribution of Aconitum leucostomum in Qinghai Province showed a contraction trend，particularly noticeable under the 2030 s SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios，with a tendency to shift towards the southeast.