基于Maxent模型的河西走廊骆驼蓬潜在适生区研究

Study of potential suitable areas for Peganum harmala in the Hexi Corridor

摘要:

【目的】 了解骆驼蓬（Peganum harmala）分布及影响其分布的主要环境因子对科学防控和合理利用骆驼蓬具有重要意义。【方法】 基于MaxEnt模型，结合分布点数据和16个生态因子数据探讨了影响河西走廊骆驼蓬分布的主导生态因子及未来适生区变化。【结果】 影响骆驼蓬分布的主导生态因子是人类足迹、最湿月降水量、海拔、坡度和土壤有效水含量。河西走廊骆驼蓬主要分布在古浪县、凉州区、永昌县、山丹县、甘州区、民乐县、临泽县、民勤县、高台县和肃州区等。2030年和2050年适生区面积增长幅度最大的气候情景模式分别为SSP245和SSP126。【结论】 人类足迹和最湿月降水量是影响河西走廊骆驼蓬分布的主导生态因子；分布区主要在中东部地区；未来不同气候情景下，骆驼蓬适生区会向高纬度地区扩张。

关键词:骆驼蓬;MaxEnt模型;生态因子;适生区;分布特征;河西走廊

Abstract:

【Objective】 Understanding the distribution of Peganum harmala and the main environmental factors affecting its distribution is of great significance for the scientific prevention and control and rational utilization of P. harmala.【Method】 Based on MaxEnt model，combined with distribution point data and 16 ecological factors，the dominant ecological factors affecting the distribution of P. harmala in Hexi Corridor and the changes of future in suitable habitats were explored.【Result】 The dominant ecological factors that affect the distribution of P. harmala were human footprint，wettest month rainfall，altitude，slope and soil effective water content. The P. harmala of the Hexi Corridor are mainly distributed in Gulang County，Liangzhou District，Yongchang County，Shandan County，Ganzhou District，Minle County，Linze County，Minqin County，Gaotai County and Suzhou District. The climate scenario models with the largest increases in suitable habitat area in 2030 and 2050 were SSP245 and SSP126，respectively.【Conclusion】Human footprint and wettest month rainfall were the dominant ecological factors affecting the distribution of P. harmala in Hexi Corridor. The distribution area was mainly in the central and eastern regions； In the future，under different climatic scenarios，the suitable area of P. harmala would expand to high latitudes.

Key words:Peganum harmala;MaxEnt model; environmental variables; suitable area